Q2 2026 Freight Market Report
The freight market has shifted. Not shifting. Not about to shift. Shifted. Most shippers are just now starting to feel it. Spot rates have climbed for seven consecutive months. Carrier capacity is the tightest it has been in four years. Diesel staged its largest single-week spike on record earlier this year. And the shippers who spent the last three to four years comfortable in a soft market are walking into a very different environment without a plan. We book freight every day. We talk to carriers. We talk to shippers. We see what is happening in real time on active loads across the country. This report combines the most current data available with what we are actually experiencing on the ground so you can plan accordingly. — **Truckload Rates Are Climbing Fast** Truckload costs are projected to rise 16 to 17 percent year over year in 2026. That is not a minor adjustment. That is a budget line item that is going to require a real conversation inside most shipping organizations. Dry van spot rates climbed from lows around $1.65 per mile in late 2025 to approximately $2.01 per mile by February 2026 and have continued rising into Q2. Reefer rates are running above 2025 levels across the board. Flatbed is outperforming every other equipment type, driven by strong demand from construction and energy infrastructure projects. Load-to-truck ratios on flatbed exceeded 60 to 1 in late February, the highest since mid-2022. The gap between contract and spot pricing is also narrowing. Spot rates have climbed for seven consecutive months. Shippers who locked in contract rates assuming the soft market would hold are going to face a renegotiation conversation sooner than they expected. Getting ahead of that conversation now is the right move. What we are seeing on the ground: lanes that were easy to cover six months ago require more effort and more carrier relationship capital today. Carriers that were hungry for freight are getting selective. The days of calling three carriers and having your pick are behind us for now. — **Diesel Crossed $5.40 a Gallon** Diesel prices climbed from $3.72 to over $5.40 per gallon in March 2026. That is the highest price since mid-2022 and it happened in a matter of weeks. When fuel spikes that fast the effects move through the entire supply chain almost immediately. Carrier margins get compressed. Trucks get parked. Fuel surcharges get repriced and the cost lands on the shipper. Analysts expect diesel to stabilize somewhere between $4.50 and $5.00 per gallon through Q2 but geopolitical uncertainty keeps that outlook fluid. Fuel surcharge transparency matters more right now than it has in years. If you do not fully understand how your fuel surcharge is calculated on active lanes, that is a conversation worth having with your provider today. Surcharge structures that made sense at $3.72 per gallon need to be re-evaluated at $5.40. — **Capacity Is the Tightest It Has Been in Four Years** The load-to-truck ratio is at a four-year high. The number of active carrier authorities in the United States sits 12 percent below its 2022 peak and is still declining. Financial pressure from two years of suppressed rates during the freight recession forced smaller, undercapitalized carriers out of the market throughout 2025. Those trucks are not coming back quickly. ELD compliance is also pulling capacity off the road. Fourteen ELD devices were removed from the FMCSA approved list in Q1 2026 alone, bringing the total to more than 60 revoked since 2019. Carriers with decertified devices face immediate out-of-service orders, creating sudden capacity gaps on lanes where they previously operated. Tender rejection rates are elevated at approximately 14 percent and rising. When tender rejections climb, routing guides fail. Shippers who have no backup plan and no broker relationship in place before a capacity crunch are the ones who feel it the most. Carrier relationships built before this tightening are paying dividends right now. When you have treated carriers well, paid quickly, and been honest about loads, they take your calls when capacity gets tight. That is not a lucky outcome. That is the result of how you operate when nobody is watching. — **CDL Enforcement Is Shrinking the Driver Pool** Regulatory enforcement around commercial driver’s licenses is adding another layer of pressure to an already constrained market. Enforcement actions targeting non-domiciled CDL holders and drivers who do not meet English proficiency standards could remove an estimated 10 to 15 percent of industry capacity according to some analyst projections. The impact is expected to be gradual rather than sudden, occurring through CDL renewal cycles rather than immediate removals. However, in a market that is already structurally tighter than at any point in the last four years, even a gradual reduction in available drivers has meaningful implications for shippers who rely on consistent capacity. Fewer available drivers means the carriers who remain have more options and more pricing power. The shipper who has built a relationship with their carrier base through a reliable broker will feel this less than the shipper who has been shopping purely on price. — **Freight Fraud Is Getting More Sophisticated** Freight fraud is no longer just double brokering. It has evolved into a sophisticated threat involving AI-generated deepfakes, carrier identity theft, and organized criminal networks that impersonate legitimate carriers to intercept loads entirely. The risk is real and growing. Shippers who work with brokers that do not have rigorous carrier vetting processes are exposed in ways that are difficult to quantify until something goes wrong. And when something goes wrong, cargo insurance companies deny claims regularly. The carrier responsible is often not going to pay voluntarily. If you do not have a broker willing to fight for you, that loss lands on you. Every carrier we book goes through a vetting process before they touch a customer’s load. Operating authority verification. Insurance confirmation. Safety rating review. This is not optional and it is not something we skip when we are busy. It is the foundation



